Friday, October 10, 2008

NFL Weekly Picks

NFL Weekly Expert Picks - Discover How to Get NFL Picks and How to Create Your Own

NFL weekly expert picks are highly sought after and quite often you must pay a monthly fee for them. But did you know that you can actually create your own and make consistent long term profits? Find out how in this article.

Where Do Picks Come From?

All good picks are the result of a good system. You might think that picks can just be made by someone who has a lot of knowledge and experience.

Whilst this is true to a degree, even the best expert is prone to making errors in judgement due to his emotions. He may even create false-logic to justify his emotional decisions. I have seen this time and time again.

A good system is not a machine - it is simple a set of rules created by an expert that must be obeyed without fail.

So what essential ingredients should any good system have?

Staking Plan

Any good system should have an adequate staking plan. Let's look to the typical gambler who is a loser, for a bad staking plan.

The typical gambler will bet a lot of money on a game. He doesn't want to bet small because that means he can't win big.

He might get lucky but when he loses he will bet even more on the next game to "make it all back". The bookies love this and have made a lot of cash out of guys who do this and eventually lose it all again.

A good staking plan is a game of "risk management". You should only bet a small amount each time. You can modify it according to the rules of the system but, in general, the amount should be low.

Here's why: even the best pro-gambler with the best analysis can go through a tough patch where he gets a large losing streak. There is no flaw in his system, it is simply the way the world works.

By betting smaller than the typical gambler, his balance can survive these moments.

Value Betting

The hallmark of any good picks are that they represent "value". This means that with every pick, the bookie has underestimated the strength of the team. This way, you get much more favorable odds and will win in the long term.

A lot of losing gamblers make the mistake of always going for the favorite in the belief that it is a profitable strategy. There is no reason why it is better to bet on the favorite versus the non-favorite. It all depends on the odds and whether the bookie is giving you any value or not.

When loser gamblers bet on the favorites, they will win more. This is called a high "strike rate". But the strike rate has nothing to do with long term profits (the yield). If you are not getting value in your picks then you can have a high strike rate but your losses will be much larger than all the small wins added up - this is a negative yield i.e. you are losing money!

Only a logical and analytical approach to gambling can ever succeed. Discover how a mathematical wizard created his own system that wins 97% of his bets at

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